Scenario projection and envisioning techniques for SMEs and startups: Insights from the DC4DM project
Keywords:
DC4DM, Future Forecasting, Scenario Projection, SMEs, StartupsAbstract
This study explores future forecasting methodologies through a qualitative, exploratory lens, bridging theoretical constructs with applied strategies in entrepreneurial ecosystems. Anchored in literature review and selected case analyses, it draws on insights from the Design Competences for Digital Maturity (DC4DM) project to illustrate how trend analysis, business modelling, and envisioning techniques can be operationalized by SMEs and startups to cultivate strategic resilience and future-readiness. Emphasizing the integration of foresight tools into both academic curricula and entrepreneurial practice, the findings reveal the transformative potential of scenario-based thinking for innovation and adaptability. The paper identifies critical gaps in empirical validation and proposes pathways for future research to refine and scale such approaches in diverse organizational and cultural contexts.
Downloads
References
Abdelkarim, I., Taleb, A., Al-Nabulsi, A., & Hassan, H. (2019). A review of scenario analysis and business modelling for foresight. Journal of Business Research, 105, 55–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2019.07.039
Apple. (2021). About Apple. https://www.apple.com/about/
Bella, L., Katsinis, A., Lagüera-González, J., Odenthal, L., Hell, M., & Lozar, B. (2023). Annual report on European SMEs 2022/2023. https://doi.org/10.2760/028705
Blake, G., & Asghar, H. (2024). Smart business strategies for SMEs: Harnessing predictive analytics to stay ahead of market trends. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.34759.61605
Bruno, C., Canina, M., & Monestier, E. (2024). Steering digital maturity: A design-based educational model for empowering digital creativity and future skills. Journal of Entrepreneurial Researchers, 2(1), 005–026. https://doi.org/10.29073/jer.v2i1.26
Bühring, J., & Liedtka, J. (2018). Embracing systematic futures thinking at the intersection of strategic planning, foresight, and design. Journal of Innovation Management, 6(3), 134–152. http://hdl.handle.net/10216/
Burroughs, W. (2020). Using foresight to shape future expectations in circular economy SMEs. Technology Innovation Management Review, 10(7).
Capatina, A., Bleoju, G., & Kalisz, D. (2024). Falling in love with strategic foresight, not only with technology: European deep-tech startups’ roadmap to success. Journal of Innovation and Knowledge, 9(3). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jik.2024.100515
Chotisarn, N., & Phuthong, T. (2025). A bibliometric analysis insights into the intellectual dynamics of artificial intelligence for the micro, small, and medium enterprises. Cogent Business and Management, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2025.2491684
Dean, M. (2019). Scenario planning: A literature review. https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/769276
Diamandis, P. H. (2012). Abundance: The future is better than you think. Free Press.
Digital Creativity for developing Digital Maturity future skills. (2025). DC4DM project.
Ferreira, L., Vezzani, V., & Cerretti, C. (2024). Ethical navigation in the development of healthcare digital applications. Reflecting on a case study from the DC4DM Learning Lab on Madeira Island. Journal of Entrepreneurial Researchers, 2(1), 049–069. https://doi.org/10.29073/jer.v2i1.29
Fildes, R. (1998). Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 49(7), 773–774. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2600027
Gil, A. (2017). Como elaborar projetos de pesquisa (6th ed.). E. Atlas.
Halima, H. A., Zainala, S. R. M., & Ahmada, N. H. (2022). Strategic foresight and agility: Upholding sustainable competitiveness among SMEs during COVID-19 pandemic. International Journal of Economics and Management, 16(SpecialIssue1), 81–97. https://doi.org/10.47836/IJEAMSI.16.1.006
Hassanabadi, M. (2019). Strategic thinking, organizational foresight, and strategic planning in high-tech SMEs in the UK [Doctoral thesis]. Bangor Business School.
Hokmabadi, H., Rezvani, S. M. H. S., & de Matos, C. A. (2024). Business resilience for small and medium enterprises and startups by digital transformation and the role of marketing capabilities: A systematic review. Systems, 12(6). https://doi.org/10.3390/systems12060220
Jonker, J., & Faber, N. (2021). Organizing for sustainability: A guide to developing new business models. Palgrave Macmillan.
Kim, J.-S., & Seo, D. (2023). Foresight and strategic decision-making framework from artificial intelligence technology development to utilization activities in small-and-medium-sized enterprises. Foresight, 25(6), 769–787. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-06-2022-0069
Kotler, P., Kartajaya, H., & Setiawan, I. (2016). Marketing 4.0: Moving from traditional to digital. John Wiley & Sons.
Lee, Y., Kim, S. Y., Song, I., Park, Y., & Shin, J. (2014). Technology opportunity identification customized to the technological capability of SMEs through two-stage patent analysis. Scientometrics, 100(1), 227–244. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-013-1216-0
Lehr, T., Lorenz, U., Willert, M., & Rohrbeck, R. (2017). Scenario-based strategizing: Advancing the applicability in strategists’ teams. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 124, 214–224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.06.026
Lindgren, M., & Bandhold, H. (2009). Scenario planning. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 76(9), 1139–1147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2008.09.004
Löfström, E., Klöckner, C. A., & Nesvold, I. H. (2020). Nature in your face: Disruptive climate change communication and eco-visualization as part of a garden-based learning approach involving primary school children and teachers in co-creating the future. Frontiers in Psychology, 11. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.568068
MacKay, B., & McKieman, P. (2018). Scenario thinking: A historical evolution of strategic foresight. Cambridge University Press.
Magistretti, S., Dell’Era, C., & Doppio, N. (2020). Design sprint for SMEs: An organizational taxonomy based on configuration theory. Management Decision, 58(9), 1803–1817. https://doi.org/10.1108/MD-10-2019-1501
Magistretti, S., Dell’Era, C., & Verganti, R. (2019). Look for new opportunities in existing technologies: Leveraging temporal and spatial dimensions to power discovery. Research-Technology Management, 63(1), 39–48. https://doi.org/10.1080/08956308.2020.1686292
Martino, J. P. (2007). Technological forecasting for decision making (Vol. 1). Elsevier.
Nweke, O. (2025). Utilizing AI driven forecasting, optimization, and data insights to strengthen corporate strategic planning. International Journal of Research Publication and Reviews, 6(3), 4260–4272. https://doi.org/10.55248/gengpi.6.0325.1209
Nwoke, J. (2025). Harnessing predictive analytics, machine learning, and scenario modeling to enhance enterprise-wide strategic decision-making. International Journal of Computer Applications Technology and Research. https://doi.org/10.7753/IJCATR1404.1010
Oladele, O. K. (2025). The role of strategic planning in managing technological disruptions in business. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/389287926
Oloruntoba, O. (2024). Green cloud computing: AI for sustainable database management. World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, 23(3), 3242–3257. https://doi.org/10.30574/wjarr.2024.23.3.2611
Podolny, J. M., & Hansen, M. T. (2020). How Apple is organized for innovation: It’s about experts leading experts.
Porter, A. L., & Cunningham, S. W. (2005). Tech mining: Exploiting new technologies for competitive advantage. John Wiley & Sons.
Prodanov, C., & Freitas, E. (2013). Metodologia do trabalho científico: Métodos e técnicas de pesquisa e do trabalho acadêmico (2nd ed.). Universidade Feevale. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004
Ramírez, R., & Selin, C. (2014). Plausibility and probability in scenario planning. Foresight, 16(1), 54–74. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-10-2012-0081
Ramírez, R., & Wilkinson, A. (2016). Strategic reframing: The Oxford scenario planning approach. Oxford University Press.
Rana, R. (2024). Agile future creation methodology: Innovation method for startups to build future-proof solutions. Journal of Entrepreneurial Researchers, 2(1), 070–087. https://doi.org/10.29073/jer.v2i1.23
Richter, I., Sumeldan, J., Avillanosa, A., Gabe-Thomas, E., Creencia, L., & Pahl, S. (2021). Co-created future scenarios as a tool to communicate sustainable development in coastal communities in Palawan, Philippines. Frontiers in Psychology, 12. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.627972
Rooyen, P., Tapinos, E., & Revie, M. (2025, February). Strategic foresight in FinTech: Harnessing scenario planning for future readiness. https://doi.org/10.17868/strath.00092326
Salamzadeh, A., Hadizadeh, M., Rastgoo, N., Rahman, M. M., & Radfard, S. (2022). Sustainability-oriented innovation foresight in international new technology-based firms. Sustainability (Switzerland), 14(20). https://doi.org/10.3390/su142013501
Saunders, S. G. (2009). Scenario planning: A collage construction approach. Foresight, 11(2), 19–28. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680910950129
Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: A tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36, 25–40.
Schwartz, P. (1997). The art of the long view: Planning for the future in an uncertain world (Rev. ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Slaughter, R. A. (1996). Futures for the third millennium: Enabling the forward view. Futures, 28(9), 819–838. https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-3287(96)00033-6
Sreenivasan, A., & Suresh, M. (2022). Adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in start-ups. 2nd Indian International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management.
Steenberg, J., Duinker, P., Creed, I., & Ouellet Dallaire, C. (2019). Alternative scenarios for the future of the Canadian boreal zone. Environmental Reviews, 27, 185–199. https://www.nrcresearchpress.com
Thiek, P. (2024, December 8). The challenge of the future by Peter Thiel. The Founders’ Tribune.
Thiel, P. (2014). Zero to one: Notes on startups, or how to build the future. Crown Business.
Toyota. (2021). 2030: Long range planning. https://global.toyota/en/company/vision-and-philosophy/long-term-planning/
Unilever. (2021). The future I want. https://www.unilever.com/sustainable-living/the-future-we-want/
Van Der Heijden, K. (1996). Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation. Wiley.
Vecchiato, R., Do, H., Pierrakis, Y., & Blackburn, R. (2024). Innovation and foresight in SMEs: Lessons from the case of U.K. digital health companies. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 71, 1655–1668. https://doi.org/10.1109/TEM.2023.3336732
Vezzani, V., Ferreira, L., Canina, M., & Monestier, E. (2023). Educating the future digital maturity enablers: Learning from the experience of the DC4DM LLabs. Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Design and Digital Communication, 508–519. Springer Series in Design and Innovation 35.
Vizcaino, M., & Sridharan, V. (2013). Envisioning: A powerful tool for strategic planning. Journal of Business Strategy, 34(5), 29–36. https://doi.org/10.1108/02756661311332570
World Economic Forum. (2020). The Future of Jobs Report 2020. https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-future-of-jobs-report-2020
Wright, A. (2025). Back to the future? A caution. Journal of Management Studies. https://doi.org/10.1111/joms.13226
Yadav, M., Chandel, A., & Quttainah, M. (2024). AI-driven decision-making in startups. In AI-driven decision-making in startups (pp. 217–240). https://doi.org/10.4018/979-8-3693-1495-1.ch010
Yin, R. (2018). Case study research and applications (6th ed.). Sage.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Journal of Entrepreneurial Researchers
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
